by Ahmed Rufai

(FinalCall.com)--The introduction of majority rule in South Africa and the election of Nelson Mandela as the country�s first African president was heralded world wide. In fact, many observers feel that if there had been no constitutional provision that limited him to two terms in office, Mr. Mandela would, perhaps, have remained in office, if he chose to. He would have won such an election due to his charismatic and unblemished record. Unlike most politicians world wide, he was uncorrupted and was not linked directly or indirectly to any scandal.

His successor, President Thabo Mbeki, seems to be facing the opposite of such an achievement. Many analysts have raised questions on how Mr. Mbeki, a technocrat believed to have been behind most of Mr. Mandela�s policies, would carve his own niche after such charismatic statesman as his predecessor. Mr. Mbeki succeeded in creating an image of his own. With his leadership of the African National Congress (ANC) at stake at the end of 2002, however, President Mbeki seems to stand the risk of being ousted by his own party.

Questions are being raised as to whether he will be challenged for the party�s leadership and whether he will win a second presidential contest at the 2004 national elections. Such questions are normal between elections in any democracy. But in South Africa, they were enlivened by the declaration of Deputy President Jacob Zuma, who suddenly denied that he planned to challenge Mr. Mbeki for the ANC leadership. Mr. Zuma discounted vague rumors and "so-called intelligence reports" suggesting that he might try to wrest control from Mr. Mbeki.

"I believe our current President is certainly capable of leading both the ANC and the country," he declared, "and my confidence in him remains unwavering."

This seemingly unsolicited declaration was Mr. Zuma�s response to rumors of tense relations between him and the President, and some observers do not see any reason to provoke his unusual statement. Other analysts believe that he issued his denial as a preemptive effort to achieve the reverse effect and to arouse public attention before declaring his interest in Mr. Mbeki�s post.

Mr. Zuma is an astute tactician and former ANC intelligence chief, which makes him an unlikely focus for party dissidents. Indications of his rift with Mr. Mbeki came during the HIV/AIDS furor last year. He distanced himself from the President�s questioning of a link between the virus and the illness.

This year, Mr. Mbeki took away one of Mr. Zuma�s pet projects, a development program for rural areas, and allocated it to his close ally, Local Government Minister Sydney Mufamadi. In addition, Mr. Zuma appears to side with those ANC members who, unlike Mr. Mbeki�s office, want to bring in Judge Willem Heath, an official corruption investigator, to look at an arms deal worth $5.4 billion (U.S.) by the South African Defense Force.

The debate over the alleged corruption in the government�s $5.4 billion arms deal is damaging the ANC and raising questions about the constitution�s rules on accountability. As some Western arms companies and their agents involved in the deal have been linked to commission payments and sanctions-busting in Asia and elsewhere in Africa, suspicion is mounting that there might be something the government and the ANC is hiding.

The opposition Democratic Alliance, led by Tony Leon and which includes members and former ministers from the old apartheid National Party, has continued to attack the ANC leadership over the issue, in spite of the involvement of persons across party lines in the deal. In fact, some of those involved link into the old apartheid military establishment and the Ian Smith regime in the then-Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe).

Pres. Mbeki and Defense Minister Mosiuoa Terror Lekota insist that current investigative structures involving the government�s Public Prosecutors office is adequate to probe the deal. Critics, including some key ANC members, insist the government wants to shut out Judge Willem Heaths� Special Investigating Unit because it is too effective. Since 1997, the Heath Commission has recovered more than $40 million from deals where it found evidence of corruption and misappropriation.

Justice Minister Penuel Maduna last year denounced the Heath Commission for exceeding its mandate by trying to operate nationally instead of restricting itself to investigating graft in the Eastern Cape provincial government to which it was mandated. In November, a Constitutional Court ruled that the Heath Commission could not serve simultaneously as a judge and investigator. Heath Commission supporters say it has a staff with corruption-busting expertise that would allow a rapid investigation of the arms deal for which former Defense Minister Joe Modise and ANC chief parliamentary Whip Tony Yengeni are alleged to have received kickbacks.

Both men have rejected the accusations. "I have very, very early on dismissed these allegations with the contempt they deserve," says Mr. Yengeni.

The allegations were first made by Patricia de Lille, a Pan Africanist Congress (PAC) member of Parliament. Mrs. Lille had produced documents, allegedly provided by concerned ANC members of parliament who suspected corruption in the arms deal. She sent the documents to the Heath anti-corruption unit.

But Justice Minister Maduna advised President Mbeki to exclude Justice Heath from the arms inquiry, accusing the judge of "touting for work." How far this scandal will affect the ANC and Mr. Mbeki�s leadership remains to be seen.