ISLAMABAD (IPS)�As the United States starts preparing for the next round in its "war on terror," this time against Iraq, the situation in Afghanistan�where this campaign began�remains unstable and shows no signs of settling down.

In early August alone, U.S. troops came under sniper attacks and were engaged in firefights with Taliban and Al Qaeda remnants. There have been accidents and explosions resulting in the deaths of American soldiers and Afghan civilians.

On Aug. 7, in the deadliest clash since the Taliban�s ouster in November, Al Qaeda fighters attacked an Afghan army outpost near Kabul, resulting in 15 casualties.

A day earlier, an American soldier was killed in an incident involving U.S. troops and Afghans close to the border with Pakistan.

A U.S. attack on Iraq would have an impact on Afghanistan as well, given that the neighbor of Iraq and Afghanistan happens to be Iran, high on the U.S. "enemies list" as part of President George Bush�s "axis of evil."

The expectations of a new order of stability emerging in the post-Taliban phase, particularly after the June "loya jirga" or grand consultative assembly, a mechanism for making decisions in Afghanistan�s tribal society, have not been met.

The loya jirga sought to prepare a road map for the transition to a democratic Afghanistan. It established a transitional administration under Hamid Karzai, one entrusted to prepare a new Constitution and hold a free, fair election in the next two years.

However, the loya jirga was caught between the conflicting demands of the warlords who assert their own authority in their respective domains versus an administration in Kabul, which wants to exercise centralized authority and control.

Then the American-led "war on terror" has failed to stamp out Al Qaeda and Taliban remnants, since Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar still remain at large and have eluded the American forces pursuing them.

Given this scenario, three kinds of conflicts can be envisaged in Afghanistan.

First, the lurking conflict between the so-called "Tajik troika" and President Karzai.

This troika, representing the ethnic Persian-speaking Tajiks, manages to control the foreign and security policies since Gen. Qasim Fahim is defense minister while Dr. Abdullah Abdullah is foreign minister.

The third member of the troika, Younis Qanooni, has been relegated from his previously powerful slot as interior minister to the politically less influential education minister�s post.

The majority of Afghanistan�s population is Pashtun, who like the 20 million Pashtuns in Pakistan, speak Pashto. Tajiks make up some 25 percent of the population, with an ethnic affinity with Tajikistan and a linguistic linkage with Iran.

Reports of tensions between President Karzai and Gen. Fahim have also surfaced, and the July assassination of Vice President Haji Qadeer, who like Mr. Karzai was a Pashtun, has upset the delicate balance of power in Afghan politics, particularly in Kabul.

His assassins have not been found and remain unidentified. Recently, Mr. Karzai replaced his security detail provided by Gen. Fahim�s defense ministry with the U.S. Special Forces, a move that shows concerns over his own personal security.

Demonstrations in Kabul extolling Ahmad Shah Masood, the famous Tajik commander known as the "Lion of Panjsher," who was assassinated on Sept. 9, 2001, have been viewed as an attempt by the Tajik Troika to assert control by building a personality cult around their slain leader.

Second, the role of the warlords is still significant. Afghanistan sometimes manifests itself as a multi-ethnic, de facto confederation of tribes and linguistic groups led by warlords, who often have camaraderie and rapport with neighbors who share an ethnic linguistic or ethnic affinity with them.

For instance, there is Pakistan with the Pashtuns, Iran with the Shiite Hazara and Farsi-speaking Tajiks and Uzbekistan with the Uzbeks.

Until an Afghan National Army is constituted, warlordism will remain a key political factor in Afghan politics with their infighting and rivalries.

Aggravating the problem is American reliance on the warlords and their forces to track down remnants of Al Qaeda and Taliban in particular parts of Afghanistan.

The third conflict could emanate from the Iran factor especially after the July 12 remarks of Mr. Bush, when he virtually incited the Iranian people to "rise against the oppressor regime," making a "regime change" in Tehran as much of a goal as is regime change in Baghdad.