MEXICO CITY (IPS)�The poorly armed and outnumbered Zapatista guerrillas will not stand a chance if the Mexican army is ordered to attack, say analysts in Mexico. Tens of thousands of soldiers have been staked out in the southern state of Chiapas, despite protests by politicians of all stripes and both local and international rights groups.

In a new massive deployment defended as "normal and necessary" by the government but termed an "invasion" by the Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN) and its supporters, hundreds of soldiers occupied new positions in the impoverished state of Chiapas.

A nature reserve, where peasant farmers loyal to the rebels had taken refuge, was the only major area that the military had not yet penetrated. The government refuses to reveal how many troops are presently stationed in Chiapas, a poverty-ridden state with a mainly indigenous population located along the border with Guatemala.

But human rights groups and politicians put the number at over 50,000, eight times more than the number of EZLN rebels, many of whom are armed with low-caliber rifles or simply machetes.

The government of Ernesto Zedillo said the latest deployment of troops was in line with its aim to defend the construction of a route towards peace, guarantee security and fight drug trafficking.

The army has moved into 161 areas of Chiapas, while police are stationed in 57, National Migration Institute agents in 24 and Attorney-General�s Office personnel in 13, according to the non-governmental Center for Economic Research and Community Action Policies.

All of the sites are strategic from a military point of view, and were chosen as part of the government�s bid to encircle the EZLN, the Center added.

But Emilio Rabasa, the government�s coordinator of the dialogue in Chiapas, told the radio newscast Red recently that the government was not seeking to provoke or attack the Zapatistas. He also reiterated the Zedillo administration�s call for a renewal of the peace talks, suspended since 1996.

However, the latest deployment of troops put the soldiers "at our backs," said "Subcomandante Marcos," the charismatic leader of Mexico�s largest guerrilla group. He maintained that the gov-ernment�s aim was to crack down on the EZLN and guarantee future oil exploitation in the region, which has significant reserves.

Deputy Gilberto Rivas, a parliamentary deputy of the center-left Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), and a member of the congressional peace commission, also protested the continued militarization of Chiapas.

"We cannot be accomplices or remain impassive to the new movements of troops, which highlight the real intention of the federal government to tighten the noose around the EZLN," said Mr. Rivas. "Congress must act fast, because it is now impossible for the Zapatistas to retreat any further."

Backed up against the Guatemalan border, the 5,000 members of the EZLN have not fired a single shot since mid-January 1994, when the government agreed to peace talks after 12 days of skirmishes between the rebels and the army.

While the talks continued and were later suspended, the army gradually but steadily increased its presence in Chiapas, "until leaving us with one foot in Guatemala and the other in Mexico," Mr. Marcos joked a few months ago.

Although there have been no direct clashes between the army and the insurgents, violence in the region, attributed to paramilitary units and religious and political differences, is a permanent fact of life.

At least 1,500 indigenous opponents of the government have been killed in Chiapas by paramilitary groups since 1994, states a report drawn up by the PRD and submitted to the Attorney General�s Office last April.