ST. GEORGE�S (IPS)�While many of their Latin
American neighbors have been counting severe losses following the
onset of the Asian Crisis in 1997, countries of the Commonwealth
Caribbean have, in the countdown to the year 2000, been licking
economic wounds attributable to somewhat different, but just as
disastrous circumstances.
The crisis, accompanied by bad weather and indifferent world
trading trends, delivered heavy punches to Latin America�s
economies last year reducing a 5.4 percent growth average in 1997
to 2.3 percent by the time the figures were tabulated earlier this
year.
Even as Prime Minister Keith Mitchell has been painting a
fairly rosy picture here, with economic growth expected to reach
close to 6 percent over the course of 1999, it is not a scenario
other members of the Caribbean Community family can easily relate
to.
Barbados � long considered to be among the more stable
economies in the region � is in the throes of an economic
slowdown that threatens to erase the after-glow of a massive
Barbados Labor Party victory at the polls in January.
All important tourism figures have declined for the first time
in four years forcing projected growth figures downward and
prompting acting Central Bank Governor Marion Williams to publicly
express some concern.
In a recent quarterly report to parliament, Mr. Williams
pointed to a $6.5 million increase in foreign reserves over the
first quarter saying an expected increase in 1999 "will
result entirely from government borrowing on the regional capital
market".
Growth in the island�s manufacturing sector has slowed, while
the construction sector has seen decline from 20.7 percent in the
first quarter of last year to 4.5 percent over the same period
this year.
It is a condition Jamaicans can easily associate with, the
island�s economy has experienced, on average, negative growth of
1.7 percent over the last 26 years.
Over the past two years more than 50 financial institutions
have scaled down their operations, closed their doors or have been
taken over by the government, as they were no longer thought to be
viable
The manufacturing sector is also in decline following the
closure of several garment factories over the last year.
"The challenge facing all of us as Jamaicans is the
generation of economic growth," Delano Franklyn, an advisor
to Prime Minister Percival Patterson wrote recently.
The political antecedents to economic growth are however
nowhere as stark as in Guyana whose recently sworn-in 35-year-old
president is charged with reversing a decline that has accompanied
persistent political strife.
Bharrat Jagdeo, whose ascent to leadership came just weeks ago
following the resignation of Janet Jagan for health reasons, is
presiding over an economy that has seen dramatic gains at the turn
of the decade turn to ashes at the turn of the century.
Guyana�s economy declined last year following average annual
growth of 7.1 percent since 1990. The decline was attributed to a
combination of deteriorating terms of trade, drought caused by the
El Nino weather phenomenon and civil unrest, which followed
general elections in December 1997.
A survey of the region�s economic performance by the United
Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
suggested that for most countries of the Latin American and
Caribbean region, "prospects for (fiscal imbalances in) 1999
do not permit hope for improvement."
It is not the kind of news economies of the Caribbean, diverse
as they are, welcome willingly and some complain that the
conditions for positive change simply do not exist.
"There is no level playing field," Prime Minister
Mitchell said. "When we place our trade requirements in the
context of the global village and the hard realities of
liberalization, the challenges ahead are indeed ominous."